TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) -- A tropical disturbance, what is now Potential Tropical Cyclone Four, is likely to organize over the next 24 hours as it moves toward southern Gulf of Mexico.
The National Hurricane Center is calling it Potential Tropical Cyclone Four because it hasn't formed just yet, but is expected to, and it allows them to issue a cone along with watches and warnings.
A timeline of tentative impacts to the Tampa Bay area is detailed below.
Friday
A normal summer day is expected with high temperatures in the mid-90s and feels like temperatures up to 111 degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect due to excessive humidity leading to those feels like temperatures in the triple digits for a prolonged period today.
Afternoon storms will be scattered to widespread through the early evening before diminishing after sunset.
Invest 97L will still be interacting with the Caribbean Islands but continue to slowly organize throughout the day.
Friday night and Saturday
The system will be emerging into the southern Gulf, an environment that is favorable for the system to develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm.
Winds will be breezy and passing showers and storms will move from east to west off and on throughout the day. The wind direction will still be offshore so coastal flooding will not be a concern at this point.
Saturday night and Sunday
Tropical rain bands will become more frequent. Winds will be quite gusty, up to 40 or 50 mph. This will depend on how strong the system ends up getting. A storm that stays just offshore could be stronger and lead to stronger wind gusts. A storm that moves onshore sooner (down south) would lead to weaker overall winds.
Flooding is possible with rain bands that train over the same areas and continue to dump heavy rain.
Coastal flooding is possible with an onshore wind. The second high tide on Sunday will be higher than normal with a stronger onshore wind. Exactly high how will depend on where exactly the storm is and how strong. A storm that moves onshore along the Nature Coast or north would lead to much higher tides.
Monday
Improving conditions with fewer storms are expected Monday with the storm continuing to move northeast toward or into the Atlantic.
There is still some uncertainty if the storm will slow down and linger through Monday (Euro) or pull away quicker (GFS). Both models move it out by Tuesday.
Bottom Line
The strength of the invest 97L will depend on how long it stays over the warm Gulf waters. The sooner the center of circulation moves inland, the weaker the storm will be. For example, if the storm moves on to land near Fort Myers, the system will stay quite weak.
If the storm manages to stay over open water as it moves north, it could become a stronger tropical storm.
Forecast models indicate a relatively short period of time over water and keep the system at a tropical storm strength while impacting Florida.
What to Expect: Winds
Winds will be breezy Saturday, 10 to 25 mph at times. Higher gusts are possible within as storms that move through.
What to Expect: Rain
Abundant tropical moisture will lead to numerous heavy downpours. Three to six inches of rain are possible through Monday.
What to Expect: Flooding
Rain flooding: Rainfall totals this summer are running above average in many locations. Additional tropical rainfall could lead to areas of brief flooding Saturday night, Sunday and Monday.
Coastal Flooding: An onshore wind will occur Sunday as the system moves north. A higher than normal tide is possible Sunday and into Monday.
Sunday afternoon's high tides will likely be the highest water levels with the strongest push of water. Monday's high tides may be slightly higher, but to a lesser extent than Sunday's.
Tornado Threat
With any tropical system, there is always a low threat for isolated tornadoes, especially on the right side of the center. These are typically weaker tornadoes and spin up quickly. This threat is for Saturday night and Sunday as the system passes.